ATCSCC  ADVZY 021 DCC 03/02/10 JFK DAILY CONFIGURATION PLAN

****CURRENT AIRPORT CONDITIONS*****

- RWY CFG: ARRIVING RUNWAY 4R/DEPARTING 4L & 31R

- AAR/ADR: 32/40

- METAR/TAF:

1251Z 07010G29KT 330V150 10SM FEW140 BKN250 04/M02 A2992

     RMK AO2 PK WND 33029/1249 SLP130 T00391017 $

TAF

KJFK 021129Z 0212/0318 33007KT P6SM SCT250 

     FM021600 VRB04KT P6SM SCT025 BKN150 

     FM022200 08008KT P6SM BKN020 OVC080 

     FM030400 05010KT P6SM OVC015 

     FM031100 02015G23KT 5SM -SN OVC015 

     FM031500 02018G28KT 5SM -RASN OVC020

- DELAYS: 

- TMI INITIATIVES: MIT

****CONFIGURATION PLAN*****

1800Z EXPECT TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL CFG 

- RWY CFG:  ARRIVING RUNWAYS 4L & 4R/DEPARTING 4L

- AAR/ADR: 44/32

- TMI INITIATIVES: MIT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GS

2100Z EXPECT TRANSITION TO DEPARTURE CFG 

- RWY CFG: ARRIVING RUNWAY 4R/ DEPARTING 4L & 31R

- AAR/ADR: 32/40

- TMI INITIATIVES: MIT WITH A GDP PROBABLE AFTER 21Z

021340-020259 

How to translate this?

Here are the parts:

A) Current runway configuration. As of this report (8:42AM EST), planes were arriving runway 4R and departing 4L and 31R (using the 3 open runways). The important figure there is the AAR or ADR (Average Arrival Rate and Average Departure Rate). At this time, it was 32 and 40 respectively. Those are the most important numbers to understand relative to how flights are likely to be delayed. The lower the numbers, the fewer planes that can arrive and depart.

B) Now we have the METAR/TAF. These are current and future weather conditions. (METAR are current conditions, TAFs are forecasted conditions). It's all in code that you can translate to normal terms with the right key (Wikipedia: METAR)

C) Configurations plan: This is the key part. This is insight into what is likely to happen later today.

Here the ATCSCC is saying that at 1800z (zulu time, or GMT, 5-hours ahead of EST), they will change the configuration to arriving on the 4s and departing on 4L.

Note this allows them to switch priority to arrivals from departures (in the morning, it's more important for departures, early afternoon arrivals as all the international flights start coming in). Now the AAR/ADR is 44 and 32.

Then, at 2100z (or at 4pm EST), they switch to arriving on 4R and departing on 4L/31R. The ADR is now up to 40, with AAR at 32. Here they are prioritizing departures in the late afternoon/evening hours for the international flights that peak in the evenings.

What does all this mean?

First, you can see the FAA is micro-managing the runway configuration at JFK and what that means for flights. You'll also see "Proposed Ground Delay" programs for JFK emerge each morning. This gets airlines advanced notice of what they can expect relative to ground delay programs later on. They are also officially announcing ground delay programs hours before they take affect (not usual) since the impact of the runway closure can be anticipated (more or less, of course weather still plays a role).

Does this mean travelers will get advanced warning of runway-related delays? Probably not. The same uncertainty about ground delay programs still exists and airlines will still be hesitant to provide transparent data and information to the traveler. Perhaps as weeks go by and the impact of the runway closure becomes more habitual, then they will begin to communicate delays earlier. But even then, I'm doubtful.

As for how these figures will translate to delays -- the initial comparison is straightforward. In optimum conditions, JFK can land/depart 75 to 87 planes per hour (that's adding the AAR and ADR). The proposed capacities outlined above indicate a combined traffic of 72-76, right in line with total capacity. So what's the problem? What the numbers don't show is the reduced flexibility in arrival vs. departure volume that may cause spikes that impact those rates. Also, limited taxiway capacity due to the construction means the potential for more ground back-ups even if the runways can handle the capacity. That is why there are Ground Delay Programs in effect even when the conditions are good. The FAA needs to control the arrival flow much more closely even if the total capacity figures looks to be decent. The idea is to prevent planes from having to circle, or even worse, divert.

Finally, these are all under optimal conditions. The weather at JFK was windy yesterday and that caused some havoc. Today, the clouds have rolled in but winds are calm. Tomorrow is likely to bring some precipitation and perhaps another look into a bad weather day.

JFK is fully capable of running at near full capacity even without one of its runways. It's good to see everyone paying close attention to try to mitigate the impact, surely it takes an extra effort. But as the daily ground delay programs are showing, JFK is teetering on the edge of not being able to handle its arrival volume and that is likely going to cause problems.

All in all, we're in for a wild ride at JFK this spring. We'll keep an eye on it and see how it impacts travelers across the nation. It's going to be like this until June, so plenty of time to assess the impact in an array of weather and operational conditions.