FlightCaster participated in some detailed analysis on one of the DOT's new rules as part of their so-called "Passenger Bill of Rights" that they announced in December.
One of those rules was fining airlines for "chronically delayed flights".
In conjunction with the Associated Press, FlightCaster analyzed what flights would have qualified as chronically delayed as defined by the DOT, and thus would have been subject to penalty had the rule been in place. It turns out, it impacts only 55 of about 14k "regularly scheduled flights". Those are flights that operated at least 10x per month for 4 consecutive months, the prerequisite for qualifying under the DOT rule. To break the rule, the flight has to be 30min. or more late or canceled at least 50% of the time for 4 consecutive months.
The thesis here is that this rule (like most of the others in the DOT ruling, by the way) will have negligible impact on the flying public. All it means is that airlines have another metric to track and then tweak their schedules by a few minutes here and there to avoid the fine.
What's wrong with this rule?
1) 30 minutes is arbitrary. 15 minutes is the standard definition of a delay by the DOT, why 30 minutes for this purpose only?
2) 50% of the time is also arbitrary. Why not 30% or 80%?
2) 4 consecutive months is also arbitrary. In fact, normal airline schedule rotations make it so that more than half of all flights wouldn't even qualify just because they aren't run frequently enough for long enough time! Some airlines (like Southwest) normally change their schedules so frequently that this rule is meaningless for them even if they did have chronic delays (which, of course, they don't anyways).
But MORE importantly, here's the rub: Every single one of the flights that would have qualified in 2009 was to or from a New York-area airport, with Newark leading the charge by far. So doesn't that tell us something? It tells us perhaps Port Authority is the one to blame, NOT the airlines. Yes, the airlines should be held accountable for keeping their schedules accurate to not mislead the public, but airlines have FAR MORE incentives to keep schedules accurate than just this silly rule. They have to have planes in place for the next flight, they have to get passengers on their connections, they have fuel to budget and plan for -- these are real dollar consequences. So if the airlines plan appropriately, don't you think they're getting penalized enough themselves for this? The fact that an individual passenger ends up late is a rather drop in the bucket when you consider impact of delays. Remember, passengers only fly on these flights once (okay, weekly at most if it is a commuting passenge) -- airlines fly them everyday! I'm not suggesting delays aren't a big deal, only this rule is about the strangest way of handling it. It is, in fact, glossing the surface to make it look like the DOT is actually doing something.
If the DOT wants to do something --- work with airlines and airports on airport capacity issues. That's where the rubber hits the road. But when anyone tries to suggest market-based pricing for airport slots or just plain restricting slots, well, the airlines go crazy and the DOT looses its nerve. So here we go again with silly, downright useless rules like this one.
But of course it exists now, so it's only fair for us to inform the world which flights would have qualified.
In no particular order, here they are -- the shameful list of chronically delays flights by the DOT's stringent definition. These are, without a doubt, flights to avoid like the plague (airline, flight number, origin, destination, and hour of departure):
AirTran 1691 Newark - Atlanta 4pm |
AirTran 474 Newark - Atlanta 6pm |
United 654 Chicago O’Hare - Newark 4pm |
Jetblue 506 Fort Lauderdale - Newark 1pm |
Continental 1197 Boston - Newark 6pm |
Comair 6382 Atlanta - Newark 8pm |
Comair 6563 Newark - Atlanta 7pm |
United 646 Chicago - Neawrk 1pm |
Expressjet 1209 Washington Dulles - Newark 5pm |
Expressjet 2342 Baltimore - Newark 12pm |
Expressjet 2473 Manchester, NH - Newark 4pm |
Expressjet 2516 Rochester - Newark 5pm |
Expressjet 2665 Detroit - Newark 8pm |
ExpressJet 2714 Baltimore - Newark 6pm |
ExpressJet 2741 Cincinnati - Newark 6pm |
ExpressJet 3082 Louisville - Newark 4pm |
Jetblue 527 Newark - Orlando 6pm |
CO 1191 Boston - Newark 3pm |
Delta 147 Newark - Atlanta 6pm |
Comair 6309 Newark - Cincinnati 5pm |
Comair 6313 Minneapolis - New York JFK 5pm |
Comair 6355 Buffalo - New York JFK 5pm |
Comair 6808 Cincinnati - Newark 2pm |
United 651 Newark - Chicago O’Hare 5pm |
Expressjet 2402 Buffalo - Newark 4pm |
Expressjet 2517 Savannah - Newark 6pm |
Expressjet 2521 St. Louis - Newark 7pm |
Expressjet 2685 Milwaukee - Newark 4pm |
Expressjet 2868 St. Louis - Newark 4pm |
Expressjet 2882 Nashville - Newark 7pm |
Expressjet 3053 Detroit - Newark 3pm |
Jetblue 1076 Richmond - New York JFK 6pm |
Jetblue 1310 Washington Dulles - New York JFK 7pm |
Jetblue 515 Newark - Fort Lauderdale 9pm |
Jetblue 544 West Palm Beach - Newark 3pm |
Continental 1105 Boston - Newark 4pm |
Continental 1138 Dallas Fort Worth - Newark 3pm |
Continental 1150 Atlanta - Newark 3pm |
Continental 1174 Chicago O’Hare - Newark 6pm |
American Eagle 4619 Boston - New York JFK 5pm |
Comair 6410 Charleston SC - New York LaGuardia 6pm |
Comair 6542 Omaha - New York LaGuardia 2pm |
Comair 6671 Portland ME - New York JFK 6pm |
Comair 6717 Rochester - New York JFK 5pm |
SkyWest 2853 Newark - Milwaukee 5pm |
United 690 Chicago O’Hare - New York LaGuardia 5pm |
Expressjet 2405 Lexington - Newark 1pm |
Expressjet 2436 Columbus - Newark 7pm |
Expressjet 2447 St. Louis - Newark 1pm |
Expressjet 2478 Greensboro - Newark 5pm |
Expressjet 2866 Milwaukee - Newark 1pm |
Expressjet 2914 Kansas City - Newark 5pm |
Expressjet 2945 Birmingham - Newark 4pm |
Expressjet 3086 Jacksonville - Newark 1pm |
Mesa 2621 Newark - Charlotte 3pm |
Remember, these flights all flew at least 4 consecutive months in 2009 through November, but it could have been any 4 months (e.g. Jan-Apr or Aug-Nov). They may or may not still be operating.
Finally, a very special FlightCaster mention goes to two of these flights in particular:
AirTran 474 from Atlanta to Newark and Expressjet 2714 from Baltimore to Newark
Both these flights qualified under the DOT rule for a whopping 8 months in 2009!! Yes, they were 30min. or more late or canceled at least 50% of the time for 8 out of the first 11 months in 2009. WOW!! Mind you another 7 flights qualified for 7 months and another 17 for 6 months. So some flights really are just bad apples.
Evan
