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If not by changing schedules, how DO airlines make flights more on-time?

I wanted to write a quick post to react to the ongoing debate being waged regarding the DOT rules announced last December and to be enforced at the end of April.

These are the rules that include things like:
-No tarmac delays over 3 hours
-No chronically late flights (>30 min late >50% of the time)
-Airlines must post on-time stats of flights on their web-sites

The rules were announced by the DOT in ruling OST-2007-0022, and all the fun details can be found on regulations.gov

I've also talked about it in prior posts:
DOT Speaks: Consumer Bill of Rights, sort of
and
DOT Rule Analysis: Rule definition and aim off the mark

Over the past few months since the ruling was announced, the public has had the opportunity to provide input and feedback for the DOT to consider. As part of this process, the Air Transport Association has asked for enforcement to be pushed back several months from the original April date so that airlines can have adequate time for technological implementation of providing the right data on their web-sites (sketchy rationale at best).

Similarly, I heard today that Jetbblue has specifically asked for a delayed implementation until after the JFK runway construction. I haven't seen this official release yet so I'm withholding comment, but you can expect some strong words on that over the next few days.

This post, however, is about what FlyersRights.org Executive Director Kate Hanni submitted during the public comment phase.

She specifically addresses some of the critique of the rules that airlines can simply adjust the times of their flights in order to have a better on-time performance.

In her words -- "FlyersRights.org, however, is concerned that airlines can nullify the intended purposes of the DOT regulation -- and any Congressional tightening of its requirements -- by "padding their schedules" to mask poor operating performance."

She goes on later: "increasing block time to nullify the new DOT regulation's publication of chronically delayed flights should be considered a violation of 49 U.S.C. 41712, as an unfair and deceptive practice"

Read the whole document here: FlyersRights.org input

Hold up for a second. Let's review the causes of the vast majority of flight delays: air traffic control, weather, congestion, inbound aircraft, airport issues, etc. How many of these are controlled by the airline? Essentially none of it except (theoretically) inbound aircraft. And how would one adjust for a late inbound aircraft? By adding more buffer time, or padding, into the inbound flight.

How many times do you have a plane, the weather is good, the taxiways and runways clear, and you are late just because the airline failed to dispatch the flight on-time? Sure it happens, but relatively rarely. Airlines already do all they can to prevent mechanical malfunctions since those are very costly, and any more pressure on them to dispatch planes in the face of mechanical issues would surely be a safety threat.

So what are airlines to do? The ONLY thing they CAN do is add more buffer time to flights. And whether they put that in your flight time or in the ground time before the next flight is immaterial. In fact, it's disingenuous for them to put it into the ground buffer time instead of your flight time -- it's them admitting they know your plane is going to be late often but not telling you about it. THAT would be a deceptive practice!

The root causes of delays are based on airport capacity and scheduling -- both those things fall under the domain of the FAA and airport authorities. Sure, the airlines play their part in that dysfunctional game, but to suggest they have major recourse to make their systems more on-time without adjusting flight times seems far fetched to me. I would contend that is the only way they individually can improve performance -- by setting customer expectations even lower. It's not a fix, it's just a patch, but any real fix is well beyond their control. The FAA should be the one to face the heat for chronic delays. After all, it's the government that controls the root causes of delays.

More on this in the coming days and weeks --

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Posted by Evan 

Comments (4)

Mar 05, 2010
Anonymous said...
So the people at FlyersRights.org are idiots for their comment about "padding their schedules" being deceptive (it's not).

However, the regulations are long overdue due to the fact that airlines had no incentive to do the right thing -- and after years of being put "on notice" they still manage to leave people overnight on a cramped diverted RJ a few yards from a gate. Oh, do you realize that the FAA had nothing to do with this incident?

As far as CHRONICALLY late flights, this is due 100% airline scheduling. Flights that are delayed air traffic control, weather, congestion, inbound aircraft, airport issues are not CHRONICALLY late; but when airlines schedule more flights that the airport can handle even when the weather is fine, guess what, those flights are always late. CHRONICALLY.

And yes, that's deceiving. And there's lots of data showing this: http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/publications/ben...

Mar 05, 2010
Jon S said...
Transparency is key to working markets. This rule simply says "stop lying". I don't see what's wrong with padding; there's nothing deceitful about it.
Mar 05, 2010
Evan said...
I agree with you completely. The link you put below is the 2004 Airport Capacity Benchmark Report (for other readers). It is my bible and starting point for analyzing all these issues. I've read it cover to cover several times.

To respond to your two different points:

1) The issue of the ExpressJet RJ in MN last summer is absolutely an airline / airport issue, I agree. But I was responding to complaints against the chronic scheduling rule, not the tarmac rule (which has a different set of issues, but all in all, I can't blame people for enforcing since airlines have shown an inability to prevent these events from happening).

2) Chronically late flights is a scheduling issue, yes. But while airlines make the schedules, the responsibility to fix the problem falls on the FAA (self-designtated "owner" of runway slots) or the airports. You cannot expect airlines to self-regulate a scarce resource. There are no incentives for an individual airline to reduce scheduling at peak periods unless the FAA forces them to or creates incentives.

I've written about this a few times before:
FlightCaster Blog: Why our political system is causing you flight delays (making your point also)
FlightCaster Blog: Root Causes of Delays (I cite the benchmark capacity report here)

Thanks for commenting!

Evan


Mar 08, 2010
Captain Spuds MacKenzie said...
Evan, while your question, "How do airlines make flights more on time?" is the right question, it is only the first of several more important questions. Deming talked about asking "why?" five times when looking for the root cause(s) of a problem. The next several questions posed to uncover the root cause(s) of over-scheduling might go something like this, "Why do airlines schedule so many flights (banks) into and out of an airport in a short period of time? - To maximize connections while minimizing pax wait time." "Why maximize the number of flights? - To serve the most pax to and from the most city pairs." Why so many small jets? - To maximize the efficiency of each flight." "Why is the efficiency of each flight important? - To maximize unit revenues (RASM) while minimizing unit costs (CASM)." "Why is it important to maximize the difference between unit revenues and unit costs? - To maximize airline profits."

So, the legacy airlines over-schedule in an attempt to maximize profits. While trying to maximizing an airline's profits is certainly not a crime, not understanding the systemic relationship between unit revenue, unit costs and maximizing profitability should be considered economic incompetance. The nature of the relationship between unit revenue, unit costs and maximizing profitability would take longer than I have time today to explain. However, maximizing each individual flight's efficiency (load factor) while ignoring the size of the aircraft that make up each flight and consequently the greater number of pax (and revenue) that can be carried on larger aircraft utilizing (landing and taking-off) the available runways in any given period of time, shows a fundamental lack of understanding of systemic revenue vs. systemic costs. This is cost accounting at its worst and all of the legacy airlines do it.

When a subway train starts at either end of the line (its route) it doesn't start with just one car, adding a car at every stop as it fills up to maximize its load factor (ASM efficiency). If a subway train added a car at each stop, it would be an inefficent use of the train's time. A subway train starts and ends its route with enough cars to handle the greater number of paxs in the middle part (downtown) of its route. It doesn't add a car at every stop to maximize efficiency on each leg of the entire line (route), but tries to maximize productivity along the entire route. While the subway train is inefficent at either end of its route it does maximizes efficiency in the middle. This way the train maximizes the total number of passengers (and revenue) across the entire system (systemically) but not on a leg by leg (unit) basis.

This is a fundamental error of attempting to maximize system profitabiity by trying to maximize unit revenue vs. unit costs. The legacy airlines are trying to maximize their profits by trying to maximize individual flight efficiency (unit load factor) instead of maximizing their systemic productivity (number of paxs & revenue that can flow trough the available runways).

Solving problems always involves asking the right questions. The legacy carriers will never solve their profitability problem because they are asking the wrong questions. Here's to asking the right questions!

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