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Mother Nature Wins.

It's days like today that are a sober reminder that nature trumps us.

We spend considerable time and money creating systems to buffer ourselves from the natural world.
Whether it be homes to keep out the cold and wind, cars that can drive through rain or snow, or planes that can beat gravity even in some of the worst weather -- we're always trying to contain nature.

But today, were reminded that we can't always do that. The volcanic ash that's spreading from the eruption at the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland is shutting down airspace in northern europe in an unprecedented way.

News reports are saying that nearly 25% of all flights in Europe were canceled Thursday evening, including all in the UK and impacting Amsterdam and Paris starting tonight, and it's unclear when flights will resume.

The ash is currently quite high -- right in the cruise altitudes of commercial jets. And as we learned the hard way in 1982 -- jets can't fly through ash. They'll cause the engines to fail.

in 1982, a British Airways plan from Kuala Lumpur to Perth lost all 4 engines while at cruise. They were able to restart 3 of them on the glide down and land safely, but it showed the power of volcanic ash to bring down a modern jet. The same thing happened in 1989 to a KLM 747 near Anchorage. Again, the plane landed safely, but heavily damaged.

It's not the only naturally occurring phenomenon that we can't fly through. Generally speaking, airliners don't fly through certain types of thunderstorms -- always around them. That is partly for passenger comfort, but also for safety as buffeting wind-shear and lightning pose risks. Planes certainly can't land or take-off in those conditions. Similarly, planes can't take off in certain types of icing, as ice pellets of a certain size can disrupt engine thrust on take-off.

But few phenomenons are as widespread and universally destructive as volcanic ash. Fortunately, these events tend to occur in remote areas near volcanoes -- places like the south pacific and Alaska. Usually the worst that happens is planes have to take longer routes around such an ash cloud. In some cases, that causes cancellations or weight reductions if the equipment can't handle the added mileage. 

But a volcanic cloud approaching a place like Europe is unprecedented. I'm sure British Airways passengers are wishing for the strike again instead of this -- at least in that case some flights got out!

I'm not trying to fly around Europe today, so it's easy for me to sit here and marvel at nature and it's true control over our daily lives. Let this be a reminder not to mess with mother nature. She wins, always.

A great Q&A on volcanic ash: Why is Volcanic Ash a Threat to Planes?
Real-time info on air traffic control in Europe: EuroControl's Network Operations Portal

Posted by Evan 

Comments (2)

Apr 17, 2010
N said...
Volcanic cloud approaching continental Europe is not unprecedented. It has happened before. Just that it has been a couple of hundred years since the last time
Apr 18, 2010
Captain Spuds MacKenzie said...
Yes it's true; Mother Nature Always Wins. But only when seen from a "it's not my fault" viewpoint; Nature's systems are what they are, they act in ways that they act and they always win against us and our human systems when they act in ways different or unanticipated from the ways we thought they should or would act. Whose fault is it Nature doesn't do what, where or when we thought it should? By blaming Mother Nature for being who she is (variation), we showcase our ignorance; We don't even know what we don't know.

Claiming that a volcano somehow wins in a struggle against the airlines or passengers trying to fly across the Atlantic is like claiming that gravity always wins in its struggle against manned flight; we haven't been able to keep one up there yet! Nature's systems (including thunderstroms, snow storms, earthquakes and volcanos) can be approximately anticipated and then accomodated. Just because we don't know where or when Nature's sytems might erupt doesn't mean that we can't take precautions, prepare contingencies, make alternative plans and develop buffers for that special cause variation that Nature throws our way.

It's not a win-lose game of Mother Nature against us. Dealing with the inevitable variation that Mother Nature creates is like dealing with Murphy's Law; If anything can go wrong it will and at the most inopportune time! We can choose to use statistical analysis, probabilities and assess potential disruptions that we know Mother Nature will provide for us from time to time, and then develop contingency plans, alternatives and buffers to eliminate or minimize these disruptions. Or, as you suggest, we can give-up and claim that Mother Nature always wins, always. Choose wisely!

Captain Spuds MacKenzie

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